Product Installs

Heat Pump Installations

Installations & Forecast

Data Sources

HPA : The Heat Pump Association (HPA) is the UK’s leading authority on the use and benefits of heat pump technology and includes many of the country’s leading manufacturers of heat pumps, components and associated equipment. HPA statistics are gathered through a combination of utilising data provided by HPA manufacturing members and using market estimation techniques to extrapolate the data to represent the full UK Heat Pump market.

FES:Future Energy Scenarios (FES) are detailed projections and analyses of potential pathways for the future of the energy system, often developed by government agencies, energy companies, or research organizations. These scenarios help policymakers, businesses, and other stakeholders understand the potential implications of different energy choices and plan for a more sustainable and secure energy future. Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2024: ESO Pathways to Net Zero represent different, credible ways to decarbonise our energy system as we strive towards the 2050 target.

Key Insights for 2024

Actual Installations (2018–2024)

  • 2018–2020 Fluctuations: Installations started at 26,726 in 2018, dropped to 24,591 in 2019 (~8% decline), and rose to 27,332 in 2020 (~11% increase from 2019), showing modest early variation.
  • 2020–2024 Surge: From 27,332 in 2020, installations climbed to 98,468 in 2024, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~37.8%, reflecting a sharp rise in adoption.
  • Overall Growth: Between 2018 and 2024, installations grew by ~268%, indicating a significant upward trend in recent years.

Forecast Installations (2025–2029)

  • Rapid Expansion: The forecast projects installations to increase from 209,043 in 2025 to 520,713 in 2029, a CAGR of ~25.7% over five years.
  • 2025 Jump: The 2025 forecast (209,043) is over twice the 2024 actual (98,468), suggesting an anticipated acceleration in deployment.
  • Long-Term Outlook: From 2024 actual (98,468) to 2029 forecast (520,713), installations are expected to rise by ~429%, pointing to an ambitious growth trajectory.

Actual vs. Forecast Comparison (2020–2024)

  • 2020: Forecast (47,686) overestimated actual (27,332) by ~74%.
  • 2021: Forecast (63,625) exceeded actual (45,100) by ~41%.
  • 2022: Forecast (77,038) was ~33% above actual (57,930).
  • 2023: Forecast (101,945) overestimated actual (60,244) by ~69%.
  • 2024 Shift: Forecast (119,212) underestimated actual (98,468) by ~21%, marking a reversal where actual growth outpaced predictions.

Summary

  • Actual installations show a strong upward trend, especially post-2020, with 2024 marking a notable peak.
  • Forecasts predict exponential growth through 2029, though earlier overestimations (2020–2023) and the 2024 underestimation suggest challenges in forecasting accuracy.
  • The data reflects increasing heat pump adoption, likely driven by external factors like policy or demand, with an optimistic future outlook.

Data

Yearly Heat Pump Installations
Data by Type (2018–2024) | Forecast ~ 2029
Year Air-to-Water Monobloc Air-to-Water Split Ground-to-Water Others Total 5-year-forecast
2018 21,459 1,855 896 2,516 26,726
2019 19,606 2,859 884 1,242 24,591
2020 22,310 2,715 1,303 1,004 27,332 47,686
2021 37,362 3,815 1,608 2,315 45,100 63,625
2022 47,489 4,731 1,533 4,177 57,930 77,038
2023 47,399 3,471 2,429 6,945 60,244 101,945
2024 78,060 3,260 3,210 13,938 98,468 119,212
2025



209,043
2026



271,197
2027



344,105
2028



436,393
2029



520,713

Actual: HPA Forecast: National Energy System Operator

Total Installations versus Forecast

Actual: HPA Forecast: National Energy System Operator

Heat Pump Installations - Count

Source: HPA

Heat Pump Installations - Proportions

Source: HPA

Vehicle Registrations

Scope

Statistics on all vehicles registered for the first time in the United Kingdom derived from data held by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA), which administers vehicle registration and licensing records in the United Kingdom (df_VEH0160_UK).

Key Insights for 2024

  • ICE Dominance Persists but Wanes: Petrol and Diesel remain the majority but are plateauing or slightly declining, losing ground slowly.

  • Hybrids Surge as a Middle Ground: Hybrid Electric (Petrol) is a standout, nearly as significant as Battery Electric, reflecting consumer preference for partial electrification.

  • EV Growth Slows: Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric (Petrol) are stable but not surging, suggesting a pause after earlier gains, while niche EVs fade.

  • Electrification Gains Ground: EVs + Hybrids approach parity with pure ICE, signaling a market tipping toward electrification, though pure ICE retains a numerical edge.

  • 2024 Stability: Minimal shifts between Q1 and Q2 indicate a maturing market, with electrification established but not yet overtaking ICE.

Data

Fuel Type Totals by Year and Month
(2021 - 2024)
Year Month Battery electric Diesel Fuel cell electric Gas Hybrid electric (diesel) Hybrid electric (petrol) Other fuel types Petrol Plug-in hybrid electric (diesel) Plug-in hybrid electric (petrol) Range extended electric
2021 3 37,481 184,510 20 513 9,696 51,665 14 270,501 1,200 25,255 350
2021 6 47,627 176,915 7 788 9,598 66,296 10 319,177 933 30,694 436
2021 9 58,055 129,174 29 946 7,492 70,919 21 257,774 677 28,117 602
2021 12 75,732 127,515 15 810 5,726 43,304 19 199,210 1,300 26,149 817
2022 3 73,652 124,567 14 1,083 7,834 73,546 7 250,142 1,192 28,535 564
2022 6 59,933 123,054 0 1,168 6,398 71,909 25 247,027 600 20,829 604
2022 9 70,069 119,229 3 951 7,349 84,569 14 245,586 469 22,104 641
2022 12 102,283 108,801 1 1,580 6,602 74,357 10 212,581 86 26,979 611
2023 3 85,585 141,228 25 1,032 5,990 103,466 19 283,929 65 31,514 544
2023 6 85,503 132,500 1 734 4,877 98,356 19 261,008 120 30,253 509
2023 9 97,572 136,444 0 938 4,964 129,261 19 263,421 190 36,627 432
2023 12 86,804 125,002 0 1,178 4,318 113,609 14 223,713 176 42,027 524
2024 3 94,844 145,549 0 1,114 5,157 153,834 14 272,598 65 42,630 419
2024 6 94,025 143,681 0 1,044 5,111 152,692 14 269,777 63 42,544 414

Source: Department for Transport

All Fuel Types Registrations

Source: Department for Transport

All Fuel Types Registrations - Total

Source: Department for Transport

Vehicle Registrations - ICE vs EV

Source: Department for Transport

Electric Vehicles Registrations

Source: Department for Transport

Vehicle Registrations - EV Types

Source: Department for Transport

Smart Meter Installations

Scope

Quarterly statistics on the roll-out of smart meters in UK, covering meters operating and meters installed published by Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

Key Insights 2024

  • Domestic Decline: Domestic installations, the bulk of the total, fell significantly in 2024 (11.3% drop March–June), with a partial September recovery, marking the lowest quarterly average since 2020.

  • Non-Domestic Stability: Non-Domestic installations dropped 20.5% mid-year but stabilized in September, maintaining a small (~3%) but consistent share.

  • Overall Slowdown: Total installations in 2024 (722,000 average) are down from 2023 (848,000) and 2022 (~892,000), with a notable mid-year dip.

  • Consistent Focus: The Domestic-heavy ratio (96–97%) persists, showing no shift in deployment priorities.

  • Adjustment Phase: 2024’s volatility (sharp drop, modest rebound) suggests a transition from aggressive growth to a more mature or constrained rollout.

Data

Smart Meters Installations
(2020–2024)
Year Month Domestic Non-Domestic
2020 3 1,000,733 11,564
2020 6 142,592 1,148
2020 9 873,381 13,762
2020 12 991,632 18,688
2021 3 765,023 17,911
2021 6 1,002,037 22,529
2021 9 900,727 25,163
2021 12 857,513 19,567
2022 3 897,486 20,787
2022 6 840,729 22,433
2022 9 874,518 24,301
2022 12 915,587 25,390
2023 3 843,819 32,228
2023 6 780,175 29,555
2023 9 815,479 30,817
2023 12 825,257 33,887
2024 3 747,272 29,988
2024 6 663,167 23,991
2024 9 680,518 24,059
2024 12 669,839 20,463

Source: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

All Smart Meter Installations - Quarterly

Source: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

All Smart Meter Installations - Yearly

Source: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

Domestic vs Non-Domestic

Source: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

Public EV Chargepoints

Scope

The number of publicly available electric vehicle charging devices in the UK published by the Department of Transport on GOV.UK.

Key Insights

  • 2024 Boom: The UK added 16,365 devices (+30.5%), with England contributing 14,990 (91.6%), and Northern Ireland (+37.4%) and Wales (+35.0%) showing the highest relative growth, pushing the cumulative total to 70,042 by October.

  • England’s Lead: England’s cumulative total reached 60,364 by Oct 2024 (+32.3%), accounting for ~86% of the UK network, with 14,990 new devices in 2024.

  • Smaller Regions Surge: Northern Ireland (+174), Wales (+787), and Scotland (+1,414) significantly boosted their cumulative totals in 2024, growing 37.4%, 35.0%, and 30.8%, respectively.

  • 2025 Start: January 2025 added 3,292 devices (+4.7%), reaching 73,334 UK-wide, with England (+3,025) and Northern Ireland (+6.4%) leading, indicating continued but slower growth.

  • Cumulative Milestone: The UK network grew nearly fivefold since Oct 2019, with 2024’s 16,365 additions (28% of the total increase) marking a peak year, followed by a steady 2025 start.

Data

Publicly Available Charging Devices by Country
(2019–2025)
Year Month England NI Scotland Wales
2019 10 12,549 295 1,743 529
2020 1 13,719 295 1,922 569
2020 4 14,979 305 2,040 623
2020 7 15,395 312 1,910 648
2020 10 16,456 318 2,038 675
2021 1 17,459 320 2,192 804
2021 4 19,261 327 2,351 851
2021 7 20,563 330 2,565 916
2021 10 21,925 332 2,676 994
2022 1 24,159 345 2,816 1,055
2022 4 25,884 348 2,953 1,105
2022 7 27,502 328 2,989 1,192
2022 10 29,774 342 3,272 1,249
2023 1 31,466 366 3,758 1,465
2023 4 34,203 389 3,919 1,639
2023 7 37,717 433 3,985 1,885
2023 10 42,489 431 4,239 2,061
2024 1 46,374 465 4,592 2,246
2024 4 51,506 545 5,077 2,542
2024 7 55,631 618 5,613 2,770
2024 10 60,364 639 6,006 3,033
2025 1 63,389 680 6,138 3,127

Source: Department for Transport

Public EV Devices - By Country

Source: Department for Transport

Available Public EV Devices - Proportion By Country

Source: Department for Transport

UK - Total Available Electric Vehicle Charges

Source: Department for Transport

UK - EV Devices Installations

Source: Department for Transport