| UK Turnover & Exports | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly Data (2020–2025) | |||
| Year | Qtr | Exports (£M) | Turnover (£M) |
| 2020 | 1 | 40,588.2 | 122,532.6 |
| 2020 | 2 | 28,438.9 | 90,959.3 |
| 2020 | 3 | 37,199.4 | 116,595.3 |
| 2020 | 4 | 44,228.0 | 126,660.6 |
| 2021 | 1 | 40,247.7 | 119,788.2 |
| 2021 | 2 | 38,598.8 | 121,748.8 |
| 2021 | 3 | 38,796.9 | 122,932.6 |
| 2021 | 4 | 42,548.2 | 130,987.2 |
| 2022 | 1 | 42,884.8 | 132,557.4 |
| 2022 | 2 | 44,882.4 | 139,541.1 |
| 2022 | 3 | 43,545.1 | 143,086.3 |
| 2022 | 4 | 47,702.3 | 150,977.7 |
| 2023 | 1 | 49,701.4 | 151,734.8 |
| 2023 | 2 | 49,722.4 | 153,884.8 |
| 2023 | 3 | 47,551.7 | 149,034.3 |
| 2023 | 4 | 49,400.6 | 152,907.0 |
| 2024 | 1 | 50,112.3 | 151,168.2 |
| 2024 | 2 | 49,837.5 | 153,443.1 |
| 2024 | 3 | 47,980.8 | 151,459.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | 49,424.1 | 155,775.9 |
| 2025 | 1 | 49,862.2 | 153,436.9 |
Manufacturing
UK Manufacturing Turnover & Exports
Key Insights
1. Q1 2025 Performance Overview
- Turnover: £153,436.9 million, down slightly from Q4 2024 (£155,775.9 million, -1.5%) but up from Q1 2024 (£151,168.2 million, +1.5%). This indicates a stable domestic output with modest year-on-year growth.
- Exports: £49,862.2 million, up from Q4 2024 (£49,424.1 million, +0.9%) but down slightly from Q1 2024 (£50,112.3 million, -0.5%). The quarterly gain suggests resilience, though the year-on-year decline hints at potential global demand softening.
2. Export-to-Turnover Ratio in Q1 2025
- Ratio: 32.5% (£49,862.2 million / £153,436.9 million), slightly down from Q1 2024 (33.2%) but consistent with the 2024 average (~32.7%).
- Insight: The stable ratio indicates that exports continue to account for roughly one-third of manufacturing turnover, with no significant shift toward or away from international markets in early 2025.
3. Year-on-Year Trends (Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2025)
- Turnover Growth: The +1.5% increase reflects steady domestic production growth, though slower than the 2022–2023 period (e.g., +14.5% from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022).
- Export Stability: The -0.5% decline suggests minor challenges in global markets, potentially due to trade barriers, currency fluctuations, or reduced demand in key regions.
4. Seasonality and Q1 2025
- Seasonal Patterns: Turnover typically peaks in Q4 (e.g., £150,977.7 million in Q4 2022) and dips in Q2/Q3 (e.g., £90,959.3 million in Q2 2020). Exports show milder seasonality, with Q1 and Q4 often stronger (e.g., £50,112.3 million in Q1 2024).
- Q1 2025 Fit: The turnover decline from Q4 2024 aligns with a typical post-Q4 seasonal slowdown, while the export increase from Q4 2024 fits the pattern of strong Q1 export performance. The year-on-year export decline, however, deviates slightly from the upward Q1 trend observed in prior years.
5. Outlook for 2025
- Strengths: Turnover’s +1.5% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 signals robust domestic production, supported by stable export performance. The sector remains near historical highs, reflecting resilience.
- Challenges: The -0.5% export decline from Q1 2024 suggests potential headwinds, such as global economic slowdowns, trade disruptions, or competitive pressures. The slight turnover drop from Q4 2024 warrants monitoring for seasonal or structural causes.
- Monitoring: Q2 2025 may see a seasonal dip in turnover and exports, based on historical Q2 weakness (e.g., Q2 2023 turnover: £153,884.8 million vs. Q4 2023: £152,907.0 million). Sustained export growth will depend on global market conditions.
- External Factors: Energy costs, trade policies, and global demand (e.g., in key markets like the EU or Asia) will shape 2025 performance. Supply chain stability remains critical for both turnover and exports.
Data
Source: ONS
Quarterly Trends
Yearly Trends
Source: ONS
Proportion
Source: ONS
Engineering Industries
Turnover
Key Insights
1. Q1 2025 Performance Overview
- Metals: £12,119.9 million, a decrease from Q4 2024 (£12,465.0 million, -2.8%) and Q1 2024 (£12,614.5 million, -3.9%). This suggests a softening in demand or production early in 2025.
- Electronics: £6,319.6 million, down on from Q4 2024 (£6,845.5 million, -7.7%) but higher than Q1 2024 (£6,230.0 million, +1.4%). The year-on-year growth indicates resilience despite the quarterly dip.
- Electrical: £4,095.2 million, slightly up from Q4 2024 (£4,076.8 million, +0.5%) but down on Q1 2024 (£4,225.7 million, -3.1%). The small quarterly increase is offset by a year-on-year decline, signaling potential weakness.
- Mechanical: £10,393.8 million, up significantly from Q4 2024 (£9,811.7 million, +5.9%) and Q1 2024 (£9,915.7 million, +4.8%). This strong growth highlights robust demand or output in early 2025.
2. Industry Contributions in Q1 2025
- Metals remains the largest contributor (£12,119.9 million, ~38% of total engineering output in Q1 2025), followed by Mechanical (£10,393.8 million, ~33%), Electronics (£6,319.6 million, ~20%), and Electrical (£4,095.2 million, ~13%).
- Shift in Share: Compared to Q1 2024, Mechanical’s share increased (from ~31% to ~33%), while Metals’ share slightly decreased (from ~39% to ~38%). This suggests Mechanical is gaining relative importance.
3. Year-on-Year Trends (Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2025)
- Growth Leaders: Mechanical (+4.8%) and Electronics (+1.4%) show positive year-on-year growth, indicating strength in these sectors.
- Decliners: Metals (-3.9%) and Electrical (-3.1%) experienced declines, potentially reflecting supply chain issues, reduced demand, or cost pressures.
- Total Output: Total engineering output in Q1 2025 (£32,928.5 million) is marginally lower than Q1 2024 (£32,986.9 million, -0.2%), driven by declines in Metals and Electrical offset by gains in Mechanical and Electronics.
4. Seasonality and Q1 2025
- Seasonal Patterns: Historically, Q2 tends to be weaker (e.g., Q2 2020 lows), while Q4 is often strong (e.g., Q4 2022 for Metals at £11,130.0 million). Q1 typically shows moderate performance, slightly below Q4.
- Q1 2025 Fit: The declines in Metals and Electrical align with a typical post-Q4 seasonal slowdown, but Mechanical strong growth is an outlier, suggesting sector-specific demand or investment driving performance.
5. Outlook for 2025
- Strengths: Mechanical robust Q1 2025 growth (+5.9% from Q4 2024, +4.8% from Q1 2024) positions it as a key driver for 2025, potentially fueled by infrastructure projects or industrial demand. Electronics’ modest year-on-year gain (+1.4%) suggests stability in tech-driven markets.
- Challenges: Declines in Metals (-3.9%) and Electrical (-3.1%) raise concerns about potential headwinds, such as raw material costs, global trade slowdowns, or reduced construction activity.
- Monitoring: Q2 2025 may see further softening if seasonal patterns hold, particularly for Metals and Electrical. However, Mechanical momentum could offset declines if sustained.
- External Factors: Global economic conditions, energy prices, and supply chain dynamics will likely influence 2025 performance, especially for Metals and Electronics.
Data
| UK Engineering Industries Turnover | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly In Millions GBP | ||||||
| Year | Qtr | Metals | Electronics | Electrical | Mechanical | Total |
| 2020 | 1 | 9,416 | 5,809 | 3,192 | 8,087 | 26,504 |
| 2020 | 2 | 7,215 | 5,154 | 2,487 | 5,791 | 20,647 |
| 2020 | 3 | 8,686 | 5,585 | 3,261 | 7,378 | 24,910 |
| 2020 | 4 | 9,303 | 6,039 | 3,459 | 8,261 | 27,062 |
| 2021 | 1 | 8,921 | 5,456 | 3,423 | 8,325 | 26,125 |
| 2021 | 2 | 9,339 | 5,552 | 3,522 | 8,746 | 27,160 |
| 2021 | 3 | 9,460 | 5,390 | 3,571 | 8,377 | 26,798 |
| 2021 | 4 | 10,034 | 5,959 | 3,547 | 8,642 | 28,182 |
| 2022 | 1 | 11,231 | 5,733 | 3,749 | 8,928 | 29,641 |
| 2022 | 2 | 11,336 | 5,836 | 3,846 | 9,228 | 30,246 |
| 2022 | 3 | 11,181 | 6,262 | 4,022 | 9,441 | 30,907 |
| 2022 | 4 | 11,130 | 6,600 | 4,221 | 10,328 | 32,280 |
| 2023 | 1 | 12,164 | 6,348 | 4,492 | 11,140 | 34,143 |
| 2023 | 2 | 11,954 | 6,305 | 4,420 | 10,784 | 33,462 |
| 2023 | 3 | 12,244 | 5,977 | 4,390 | 10,388 | 32,999 |
| 2023 | 4 | 12,025 | 6,491 | 4,261 | 9,834 | 32,611 |
| 2024 | 1 | 12,614 | 6,230 | 4,226 | 9,916 | 32,986 |
| 2024 | 2 | 12,933 | 6,188 | 4,107 | 10,258 | 33,486 |
| 2024 | 3 | 13,018 | 6,196 | 4,120 | 9,529 | 32,863 |
| 2024 | 4 | 12,465 | 6,846 | 4,077 | 9,812 | 33,199 |
| 2025 | 1 | 12,120 | 6,320 | 4,095 | 10,394 | 32,928 |
Source: ONS
Quarterly Trends
Yearly Trends
Source: ONS
Turnover - Proportions
Exports
Key Insights
1. Q1 2025 Export Performance Overview
- Metals: £2,405.7 million, up slightly from Q4 2024 (£2,250.2 million, +6.9%) but marginally higher than Q1 2024 (£2,399.2 million, +0.3%). This indicates modest stability in early 2025.
- Electronics: £3,288.5 million, down from Q4 2024 (£3,627.0 million, -9.3%) but up from Q1 2024 (£3,076.4 million, +6.9%). The year-on-year growth suggests continued global demand despite a quarterly dip.
- Electrical: £1,422.0 million, up from Q4 2024 (£1,389.0 million, +2.4%) but down from Q1 2024 (£1,447.1 million, -1.7%). The small quarterly gain contrasts with a slight year-on-year decline, indicating mixed performance.
- Mechanical: £5,490.9 million, up from Q4 2024 (£5,064.0 million, +8.4%) and Q1 2024 (£5,289.1 million, +3.8%). This robust growth highlights strong international demand in early 2025.
2. Industry Contributions in Q1 2025
- Mechanical dominates exports (£5,490.9 million, ~44% of total engineering exports in Q1 2025), followed by Electronics (£3,288.5 million, ~26%), Metals (£2,405.7 million, ~19%), and Electrical (£1,422.0 million, ~11%).
- Shift in Share: Compared to Q1 2024, Mechanical’s share increased (from ~43% to ~44%), while Electronics’ share rose slightly (from ~25% to ~26%). Metals and Electrical shares remained stable or slightly declined, underscoring Mechanical’s growing export prominence.
3. Year-on-Year Trends (Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2025)
- Growth Leaders: Electronics (+6.9%) and Mechanical (+3.8%) show strong year-on-year growth, reflecting robust global demand for UK tech and machinery products.
- Stable Performer: Metals (+0.3%) shows minimal growth, indicating steady but unremarkable export activity.
- Decliner: Electrical (-1.7%) experienced a slight decline, possibly due to competitive pressures or reduced demand in key markets.
- Total Exports: Total engineering exports in Q1 2025 (£12,607.1 million) increased from Q1 2024 (£12,211.8 million, +3.2%), driven by Mechanical and Electronics gains.
4. Seasonality and Q1 2025
- Seasonal Patterns: Exports typically dip in Q2 (e.g., Q2 2020 lows) and peak in Q4 or Q3 (e.g., Q4 2022 for Mechanical at £5,896.4 million). Q1 is generally moderate, slightly below Q4.
- Q1 2025 Fit: Mechanical and Metals align with a strong Q1, with gains from Q4 2024. Electronics’ quarterly decline fits a post-Q4 seasonal slowdown, while Electrical’s slight gain is atypical but modest.
5. Export-to-Total Turnover Ratio (Q1 2025)
- Export ratios in Q1 2025 are:
- Metals: ~19.8% (£2,405.7 million / £12,119.9 million), up from ~19.0% in Q1 2024.
- Electronics: ~52.0% (£3,288.5 million / £6,319.6 million), up from ~49.4% in Q1 2024.
- Electrical: ~34.7% (£1,422.0 million / £4,095.2 million), up from ~34.2% in Q1 2024.
- Mechanical: ~52.8% (£5,490.9 million / £10,393.8 million), down from ~53.3% in Q1 2024.
- Insight: Higher export ratios for Metals, Electronics, and Electrical suggest increasing reliance on international markets, while Mechanical slight decline indicates a balanced domestic/export focus.
6. Outlook for 2025
- Strengths: Mechanical’s strong Q1 2025 growth (+8.4% from Q4 2024, +3.8% from Q1 2024) and Electronics’ year-on-year gain (+6.9%) position these sectors as export leaders, likely driven by global demand for machinery and tech.
- Challenges: Electrical’s year-on-year decline (-1.7%) and Metals’ minimal growth (+0.3%) suggest vulnerabilities, possibly due to global trade slowdowns or cost pressures.
- Monitoring: Q2 2025 may see a seasonal dip, particularly for Electronics, based on historical patterns. Mechanical’s momentum could sustain growth if global demand holds.
- External Factors: Trade policies, exchange rates, and global economic conditions will influence 2025 export performance, especially for Electronics and Mechanical.
Data
| UK Engineering Industry Exports | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly In Millions GBP | ||||||
| Year | Qtr | Metals | Electronics | Electrical | Mechanical | Total |
| 2020 | 1 | 1,394 | 2,959 | 1,130 | 4,584 | 10,067 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1,279 | 2,822 | 1,014 | 3,408 | 8,523 |
| 2020 | 3 | 1,366 | 3,078 | 1,182 | 4,265 | 9,891 |
| 2020 | 4 | 1,643 | 3,470 | 1,205 | 4,793 | 11,112 |
| 2021 | 1 | 1,404 | 2,992 | 1,154 | 4,636 | 10,185 |
| 2021 | 2 | 1,456 | 3,043 | 1,208 | 4,795 | 10,502 |
| 2021 | 3 | 1,400 | 2,943 | 1,174 | 4,535 | 10,053 |
| 2021 | 4 | 1,456 | 3,295 | 1,291 | 4,759 | 10,801 |
| 2022 | 1 | 1,703 | 3,275 | 1,278 | 4,904 | 11,160 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1,767 | 3,365 | 1,251 | 5,121 | 11,503 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1,652 | 3,672 | 1,332 | 5,252 | 11,908 |
| 2022 | 4 | 1,763 | 3,725 | 1,425 | 5,896 | 12,809 |
| 2023 | 1 | 2,020 | 3,311 | 1,499 | 5,933 | 12,763 |
| 2023 | 2 | 2,229 | 3,203 | 1,467 | 5,738 | 12,638 |
| 2023 | 3 | 2,540 | 2,986 | 1,394 | 5,431 | 12,351 |
| 2023 | 4 | 2,441 | 3,370 | 1,434 | 5,308 | 12,552 |
| 2024 | 1 | 2,399 | 3,076 | 1,447 | 5,289 | 12,212 |
| 2024 | 2 | 2,666 | 3,165 | 1,518 | 5,462 | 12,812 |
| 2024 | 3 | 2,560 | 3,268 | 1,473 | 5,060 | 12,360 |
| 2024 | 4 | 2,250 | 3,627 | 1,389 | 5,064 | 12,330 |
| 2025 | 1 | 2,406 | 3,288 | 1,422 | 5,491 | 12,607 |
Source: ONS
Exports - Quarterly
Exports - Yearly
Source: ONS
Exports - Proportions
Employment
Manufacturing Jobs
Key Insights 2024
The UK manufacturing jobs market in 2024 appears to be in a holding pattern, maintaining a steady headcount around 2.58 million with no notable growth or decline. This stability follows a period of recovery in 2022 and slight softening in 2023, but the lack of upward movement in 2024 could signal challenges in achieving further expansion, potentially due to economic conditions, labour market constraints, or shifts in industrial focus. Extrapolating to Q4 2024, we might expect a figure close to 2.58 million, barring any major economic shifts.
Data
| UK Manufacturing Jobs Headcount1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly Data from 2020 to 20241 | ||
| Year | Month | Headcount (000s) |
| 2020 | 3 | 2,681 |
| 2020 | 6 | 2,623 |
| 2020 | 9 | 2,567 |
| 2020 | 12 | 2,554 |
| 2021 | 3 | 2,535 |
| 2021 | 6 | 2,548 |
| 2021 | 9 | 2,533 |
| 2021 | 12 | 2,547 |
| 2022 | 3 | 2,608 |
| 2022 | 6 | 2,616 |
| 2022 | 9 | 2,617 |
| 2022 | 12 | 2,628 |
| 2023 | 3 | 2,620 |
| 2023 | 6 | 2,584 |
| 2023 | 9 | 2,609 |
| 2023 | 12 | 2,606 |
| 2024 | 3 | 2,580 |
| 2024 | 6 | 2,576 |
| 2024 | 9 | 2,580 |
| 1 Headcount figures exclude self-employed individuals. | ||
Source: ONS
Quarterly Trends
Source: ONS
Engineering Jobs
Key Insights 2024
Overall Decline in Engineering Jobs
Employment in the engineering sector has been decreasing since 2020, with 2024 showing a particularly sharp decline.
The largest drop is in Metals and Electronics, with Metals down from 325 in Q3 2023 to 161 in Q4 2024 (a significant decline).
Electronics and Electrical Sectors Under Pressure
- Electronics sector employment dropped from 129 in Q2 2024 to 114 in Q3 and is on a downward trend.
- Electrical sector employment has declined from 76 in Q1 2023 to 74 in Q4 2024.
Metals Sector Faces a Consistent Decline
- The Metals industry started at 301 (Q4 2022), peaked at 325 in Q3 2024, but saw a drop to 301 in Q4 2024, suggesting contraction.
Mechanical Engineering is Stabilizing
- Mechanical employment fell from 182 in Q3 2023 to 161 in Q4 2024 but has been relatively stable since Q3 2023.
Data
| UK Engineering Jobs Headcount (Thousands)1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly Data from 2020 to 20241 | |||||
| Year-Quarter | Metals | Electronics | Electrical | Mechanical | Total |
| 2020 Q1 | 290 | 122 | 70 | 179 | 661 |
| 2020 Q2 | 298 | 116 | 73 | 174 | 661 |
| 2020 Q3 | 301 | 112 | 75 | 168 | 656 |
| 2020 Q4 | 293 | 111 | 72 | 161 | 637 |
| 2021 Q1 | 285 | 113 | 67 | 164 | 629 |
| 2021 Q2 | 271 | 114 | 67 | 160 | 612 |
| 2021 Q3 | 272 | 113 | 65 | 162 | 612 |
| 2021 Q4 | 281 | 112 | 67 | 168 | 628 |
| 2022 Q1 | 289 | 113 | 66 | 170 | 638 |
| 2022 Q2 | 298 | 112 | 67 | 179 | 656 |
| 2022 Q3 | 295 | 110 | 69 | 187 | 661 |
| 2022 Q4 | 301 | 112 | 70 | 185 | 668 |
| 2023 Q1 | 305 | 114 | 69 | 182 | 670 |
| 2023 Q2 | 324 | 116 | 71 | 177 | 688 |
| 2023 Q3 | 325 | 114 | 73 | 183 | 695 |
| 2023 Q4 | 317 | 116 | 74 | 185 | 692 |
| 2024 Q1 | 273 | 134 | 76 | 167 | 650 |
| 2024 Q2 | 261 | 129 | 72 | 162 | 624 |
| 2024 Q3 | 258 | 124 | 68 | 161 | 611 |
| 1 Headcount figures exclude self-employed individuals. | |||||
Source: ONS
Cummulative Total
Source: ONS
Relative Proportions
Source: ONS