Grid Investment

Transmission Entry Capacity Register

What is TEC Register?

Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) register is list of projects that hold contracts with National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) . These include existing and future connection projects and projects that can be directly connected to the National Electricity Transmission System (NETS), or make use of it.

Snapshot: March 2025

Comparing March 2025 to August 2024 snapshot, the total planned energy capacity grew by 44,014 MW, reaching 686,784 MW. This 6.8% increase was distributed across various project stages:

• scoping saw a 9.3% jump,
• built capacity rose by 2.2%,
• awaiting consents increased by 5.5%,
• consents approved increased by 4.5% and
• projects under construction or commissioning experienced a substantial 45.2% decline.

TEC Register - March 2025

Source: National Grid Electricity System Operator

Data - Capacity By Project Status

Cummulative Total Capacity By Project Status
Capacity by Status with Percentage of Total
Project Status	Capacity (MW)1	Percentage (%)
Scoping	501,198	72.98
Built	77,617	11.30
Awaiting Consents	62,569	9.11
Consents Approved	39,140	5.70
Under Construction/Commissioning	6,260	0.91
1 MW = Megawatts; percentages calculated from total capacity.

Source: National Grid Electricity System Operator

Data - Capacity By Product Type

Cummulative Total Capacity By Product Type
Capacity by Type with Percentage of Total
Generation Type	Capacity (MW)1	Percentage (%)
Energy Storage	218,289	32.01
Demand	189,246	27.76
Wind	144,007	21.12
CCGT	77,528	11.37
Nuclear	18,071	2.65
Pump Storage	15,037	2.21
PV	6,978	1.02
Biomass	5,139	0.75
OCGT	2,573	0.38
Tidal	1,857	0.27
Hydro	1,086	0.16
CHP	811	0.12
Gas	612	0.09
Thermal	299	0.04
Waste	173	0.03
Oil	62	0.01
Coal	50	0.01
RC	20	0.00
1 MW = Megawatts; percentages calculated from total capacity.

Source: National Grid Electricity System Operator

Low Carbon Technology (LCT) Connections

What is it?

Low Carbon Technology (LCT) connections refer to the process of connecting technologies that contribute to reducing carbon emissions to the electrical grid. These technologies include:

• Electric Vehicle (EV): Electric cars, reduce reliance on fossil-fuel-powered vehicles.
• Heat Pumps (HP): Provide efficient heating and cooling using electricity, reducing the need for gas or oil-based systems.
• Solar Panels (PV): Generate renewable electricity, reducing reliance on fossil fuel power plants.
• Energy Storage Systems (ES) : Store excess renewable energy for use when generation is low, improving grid stability and reducing reliance on fossil fuel backup generation.

Data

Low Carbon Technology Adoption
Annual Counts from 2017 to 2024
Year	Electric Vehicles	Energy Storage	Heat Pumps	Photovoltaics
2017	2,834	14	1,767	6,337
2018	3,650	166	3,135	9,044
2019	4,046	550	3,936	12,940
2020	8,424	663	4,161	7,283
2021	19,941	923	8,111	13,725
2022	43,112	1,489	5,307	32,138
2023	24,989	2,828	8,533	50,991
2024	36,240	2,826	15,846	42,727

Source: National Grid Distribution

Monthly Trends

Source: National Grid Distribution

Yearly Trends

Source: National Grid Distribution

Yearly Trends - Bar

Yearly Trends By DNO

Source: National Grid Distribution

Source: National Grid Distribution

Yearly Total Connections

Source: National Grid Distribution

RIIO SPEND

What is RIIO?

RIIO stands for Revenue = Incentives + Innovation + Outputs, and it’s a performance-based regulation model introduced by Ofgem, the UK’s energy regulator.

Under RIIO, network companies are given price controls that determine the amount of revenue they can earn from charging users of their network. These price controls are designed to encourage:

• Investment: To ensure network companies have the funds to invest in maintaining and upgrading the energy infrastructure.
• Innovation: To stimulate the development and adoption of new technologies and processes that improve network efficiency and customer service.
• Efficiency: To promote efficient operation of the networks and minimize costs for customers. Outputs: To deliver specific outcomes that benefit consumers, such as improved reliability, resilience, and environmental performance.

RIIO spend covers various areas, including:

• Asset maintenance and replacement: Maintaining and upgrading existing assets, such as power lines, substations, and gas pipes.
• Network expansion: Building new infrastructure to meet growing demand and connect new sources of generation, like renewable energy projects.
• Technology and innovation: Investing in new technologies and innovative solutions to improve network performance, reduce costs, and enhance customer service.
• Environmental improvements: Implementing measures to reduce carbon emissions and environmental impact.

Currently, the UK is in the second phase of the RIIO framework, known as RIIO-2, which covers the period from 2021 to 2026 for electricity transmission and gas transmission networks (ET2), and from 2023 to 2028 for electricity distribution networks (ED2).

RIIO-ED2

RIIO-ED2 is the price control for the electricity distribution network, where network companies take power from the transmission network and deliver it at safe, lower voltages to homes and businesses. The price control runs for five years, from 2023-2028. There are currently 14 distributed network operators (DNO) in the UK namely:

• ENWL: Electricity North West Limited Operates the distribution network in North West England.

• NPdN: Northern Powergrid (Northeast) Northern Powergrid operates two regions; this refers to the Northeast England area.

• NPdY: Northern Powergrid (Yorkshire) The Yorkshire region operated by Northern Powergrid.

• WMD: Western Power Distribution (West Midlands) Part of National Grid Electricity Distribution, covering the West Midlands. (Note: Western Power Distribution rebranded to National Grid Electricity Distribution in 2022, but the regional distinction remains.)

• EMD: Western Power Distribution (East Midlands) Covers the East Midlands, also under National Grid Electricity Distribution.

• SWALES: Western Power Distribution (South Wales) Operates in South Wales, part of National Grid Electricity Distribution. (Sometimes abbreviated as “SWAL” or “SWALES” in older contexts, derived from the former South Wales Electricity Board, SWALEC.)

• SWEST: Western Power Distribution (South West) Covers South West England, also under National Grid Electricity Distribution. (Historically linked to the South Western Electricity Board.)

• LPN: London Power Networks Managed by UK Power Networks, covering London.

• SPN: South Eastern Power Networks Another UK Power Networks region, covering South East England.

• EPN: Eastern Power Networks Operates in East England, managed by UK Power Networks.

• SPD: Scottish Power Energy Networks (Distribution) Covers southern Scotland. (Often just “SP Distribution” in shorthand; part of SP Energy Networks.)

• SPMW: Scottish Power Energy Networks (Manweb) Covers Merseyside and North Wales. (Manweb stands for Merseyside and North Wales Electricity Board, a historical name retained by SP Energy Networks.)

• SSEH: Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (Hydro) Refers to the northern Scotland region, historically tied to Scottish Hydro-Electric. (Part of SSE’s distribution arm.)

• SSES: Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (Southern) Covers central southern England under SSE’s distribution network.

ED2 LOAD Related Capex

Allowed Load-Related Capex

This refers to the capital expenditure that is permitted by the regulator (Ofgem) for investments in network expansion and reinforcement due to increased electricity demand, such as new connections, load growth, and network upgrades.

Total Actual Load-Related Capex

This represents the actual expenditure incurred by the DNO on projects that increase network capacity to meet new demand, which is compared against the allowed capex to assess efficiency and potential regulatory adjustments.

Key Findings

• Initial Underspending (2023/24 - 2024/25): In the first two years, Actual spending is significantly below Allowed levels, with gaps of 290 and 193, respectively. This suggests either under utilisation of allocated funds or delays in planned projects.

• Shift to Overspending (2025/26 - 2027/28): Starting in 2025/26, Actual spending exceeds Allowed amounts, with the gap turning negative (-38, -133, -177). This indicates a trend of increasing overspending, potentially due to rising costs or accelerated project timelines.

• Growth in Actual Spending: Actual Capex grows steadily from 376 in 2023/24 to 946 in 2027/28, a total increase of 570 units (151% growth). This reflects a significant ramp-up in investment or expenditure over the period.

• Allowed Spending Peaks Early: Allowed Capex peaks in 2024/25 at 748 and then fluctuates (665–769 range), not keeping pace with the Actual spending trajectory. This misalignment may signal budgeting or regulatory challenges.

• Widening Negative Gap: The negative gap widens over time, reaching -177 by 2027/28. This growing divergence could indicate cost overruns or insufficient budget adjustments to match actual needs.

Summary

The UK DNO Load-Related Capex data highlights a shift from underspending to overspending over the period, with actual expenditures growing significantly while allowed budgets peak early and fail to keep pace. The increasing negative gap by 2027/28 underscores potential funding or planning issues for load-related infrastructure investments.

Data

Year	Actual (GBP mil)	Allowed (GBP mil)	Gap (Allowed - Actual)
2023/24	376.00	666.00	290.00
2024/25	555.00	748.00	193.00
2025/26	703.00	665.00	−38.00
2026/27	830.00	697.00	−133.00
2027/28	946.00	769.00	−177.00

Source: Ofgem

Trends

Source: Ofgem

DNO Breakdown

Source: Ofgem

DNO Groups Breakdown

ED2 NON-LOAD Related Capex

Total Actual Non-Load-Related Capex – Asset Replacement

This is the actual money spent on replacing and refurbishing aging assets, ensuring continued network reliability and safety. It is reviewed against the allowed expenditure for efficiency assessments.

Allowed Non-Load-Related Capex – Asset Replacement

This is the capex allowance set by Ofgem for replacing aging or deteriorating network assets (e.g., transformers, switchgear, cables) to maintain network reliability and safety, not directly driven by demand growth.

Key Findings

• Initial Underspending (2023/24): In 2023/24, Actual spending (857.4) is below Allowed (1042.8), with a positive gap of 185.4. This suggests underutilization of allocated funds or delayed spending in the first year.

• Shift to Overspending (2024/25 - 2025/26): Actual spending exceeds Allowed amounts in 2024/25 (1213.8 vs. 1134, gap -79.8) and peaks in 2025/26 (1426.1 vs. 1154, gap -272.1). This indicates a significant overspend, possibly due to cost increases or accelerated non-load related projects.

• Peak Actual Spending in 2025/26: Actual Capex reaches its highest point at 1426.1 in 2025/26, a 66% increase from 857.4 in 2023/24, before declining in later years. This suggests a concentrated investment period followed by a reduction.

• Return to Underspending (2026/27 - 2027/28): In the final two years, Actual spending falls below Allowed levels again, with small positive gaps (33.1 in 2026/27, 35.2 in 2027/28). This could reflect a stabilization or correction after earlier overspending.

• Fluctuating Allowed Spending: Allowed Capex remains relatively stable (1042.8 to 1215.9 range) but does not align with the fluctuations in Actual spending, particularly the peak in 2025/26. This misalignment may highlight budgeting or forecasting challenges.

Summary

The UK DNO Non-Load Related Capex data shows a dynamic pattern, shifting from underspending in 2023/24 to significant overspending in 2024/25 and 2025/26, before reverting to underspending in 2026/27 and 2027/28. Actual spending peaks in 2025/26, while allowed budgets remain relatively stable, highlighting potential mismatches in planning versus execution for non-load related investments.

Data

Year	Actual (GBP mil)	Allowed (GBP mil)	Gap (Allowed - Actual)
2023/24	857.40	1,042.80	185.40
2024/25	1,213.80	1,134.00	−79.80
2025/26	1,426.10	1,154.00	−272.10
2026/27	1,182.80	1,215.90	33.10
2027/28	1,054.80	1,090.00	35.20

Source: Ofgem

Trends

Source: Ofgem

DNO Breakdown

Source: Ofgem

DNO Groups Breakdown

Source: Ofgem

RIIO-ET2

RIIO-T2 is the price control for the high voltage electricity transmission networks and high pressure gas transmission networks which transmit energy across Britain from where it is generated. The price control runs for five years, from 2021-2026.

The UK has three main electricity transmission network operators, namely:

• NGET National Grid Electricity Transmission Operates the high-voltage transmission network in England and Wales. Often simply called “National Grid” in casual contexts, but NGET is the precise acronym for its transmission arm.

• SPT Scottish Power Transmission Limited Manages the transmission network in southern Scotland. Part of SP Energy Networks, but SPT specifically refers to the transmission entity.

• SHET Scottish Hydro Electric Transmission plc Handles transmission in northern Scotland and the Scottish islands. Part of Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN), with SHET as the transmission-specific acronym.

ET2 Load Related Capex

Key Insights

Here are the key insights into the UK Transmission Operators Load-Related Capital Expenditure (Capex) data based on the provided table:

• Consistent Underspending: Across all years (2023/24 to 2027/28), actual spending is below allowed levels, resulting in positive gaps each year. This indicates that Transmission Operators are consistently spending less than their allocated budgets on load-related projects.

• Fluctuating Gap with a Narrowing Trend: The gap between actual and allowed spending varies but shows a general decline over time:

  • 2023/24: £584.3 million
  • 2024/25: £918 million (largest gap)
  • 2025/26: £667.5 million
  • 2026/27: £598.5 million
  • 2027/28: £415.1 million (smallest gap)
  • The gap peaks in 2024/25 and narrows by 2027/28, suggesting actual spending is increasingly aligning with allowed budgets.

• Peak Underspending in 2024/25: The largest gap (£918 million) occurs in 2024/25, where actual spending (£1,080.2 million) is significantly below allowed (£1,998.2 million). This could reflect conservative spending or delays in load-related projects during that year.

• Significant Growth in Actual Spending: Actual load-related Capex rises sharply each year, from £1,150.4 million in 2023/24 to £6,039 million in 2027/28—a 425% increase. This indicates a major escalation in investments, likely driven by growing electricity demand or grid expansion.

• Allowed Spending Also Increases: The “Allowed” budget grows steadily, from £1,734.7 million in 2023/24 to £6,454.1 million in 2027/28—a 272% increase. While substantial, this growth is outpaced by actual spending increases, contributing to the narrowing gap.

• Convergence by 2027/28: By 2027/28, the gap shrinks to £415.1 million, the smallest in the period, despite the highest spending levels (actual: £6,039 million; allowed: £6,454.1 million). This suggests improved alignment between planning and execution as spending scales up.

• Potential Drivers and Implications:

  • The consistent underspending may indicate over-allocation of funds, project delays, or efficiencies in delivering load-related upgrades (e.g., network capacity for renewables or electrification).
  • The dramatic rise in actual spending could reflect increasing load demands from decarbonization efforts (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) or grid modernization.
  • The narrowing gap suggests Transmission Operators are ramping up execution to meet allowed budgets, potentially signaling a catch-up phase in infrastructure development.

Summary

The UK Transmission Operators Load-Related Capex data reveals consistent underspending relative to allowed budgets, with a peak gap in 2024/25 that narrows by 2027/28. Both actual and allowed spending increase significantly over the period, with actual spending growing faster (425% vs. 272%), reflecting a substantial ramp-up in load-related investments. The trend toward convergence suggests improving alignment between forecasts and budgets as expenditures escalate.

Data

Year	Actual (GBP mil)	Allowed (GBP mil)	Gap (Allowed - Actual)
2023/24	1,150.40	1,734.70	584.30
2024/25	1,080.20	1,998.20	918.00
2025/26	2,193.10	2,860.60	667.50
2026/27	4,141.70	4,740.20	598.50
2027/28	6,039.00	6,454.10	415.10

Source: Ofgem

Trends

Tranmission Operator Breakdown

Source: Ofgem

ET2 - NON-LOAD Related Capex

Key Insights

• Shift from Underspending to Overspending: The data shows a transition from underspending to significant overspending:

  • In 2023/24 and 2024/25, actual spending is below allowed levels, with positive gaps of £273.6 million and £152.4 million, respectively.
  • From 2025/26 onward, actual spending exceeds allowed levels, with negative gaps: -£45.1 million in 2025/26, -£664 million in 2026/27, and -£884.6 million in 2027/28.

• Narrowing Positive Gap Initially: The positive gap decreases from £273.6 million in 2023/24 to £152.4 million in 2024/25, indicating that actual non-load related Capex is approaching the allowed budget before surpassing it.

• Dramatic Overspending in Later Years: The negative gap widens significantly in 2026/27 (-£664 million) and 2027/28 (-£884.6 million), the largest deficits in the period. This suggests a sharp escalation in spending beyond allocated budgets.

• Actual Spending Peaks in 2027/28: Actual non-load related Capex increases from £1,199.8 million in 2023/24 to a peak of £1,686.7 million in 2027/28—a 41% rise. The most significant jump occurs between 2025/26 (£1,189.3 million) and 2026/27 (£1,640.1 million), a 38% increase in one year.

• Declining Allowed Budget: The “Allowed” Capex decreases steadily over the period, from £1,473.4 million in 2023/24 to £802.1 million in 2027/28—a 46% reduction. This contrasts sharply with the rising actual spending, driving the growing negative gap.

• Turning Point in 2025/26: The year 2025/26 marks the shift to overspending, with a small negative gap (-£45.1 million) as actual spending (£1,189.3 million) slightly exceeds allowed (£1,144.2 million). This initiates the trend of escalating overspend in subsequent years.

• Potential Drivers and Implications:

  • Early underspending (2023/24–2024/25) may reflect delayed non-load projects (e.g., asset maintenance, resilience upgrades) or conservative spending.
  • The significant overspending in 2026/27 and 2027/28 could be driven by unforeseen costs, accelerated asset replacement, or regulatory requirements not accounted for in allowed budgets.
  • The declining allowed budget suggests a potential mismatch between regulatory forecasts and actual non-load related needs, posing risks to funding adequacy.

Summary

The UK Transmission Operators Non-Load Related Capex data highlights a shift from underspending in 2023/24 and 2024/25 to substantial overspending from 2025/26 onward. Actual spending peaks at £1,686.7 million in 2027/28, while allowed budgets decline by 46%, resulting in a widening negative gap that reaches -£884.6 million. This trend underscores potential challenges in aligning funding with non-load related infrastructure demands.

Data

Year	Actual (GBP mil)	Allowed (GBP mil)	Gap (Allowed - Actual)
2023/24	1,199.80	1,473.40	273.60
2024/25	1,208.20	1,360.60	152.40
2025/26	1,189.30	1,144.20	−45.10
2026/27	1,640.10	976.10	−664.00
2027/28	1,686.70	802.10	−884.60

Source: Ofgem

Trends

Transmission Operator Breakdown

Source: Ofgem